Cepea, August 16, 2021
CATTLE – Five months from the beginning of 2022, Brazilian beef exports have signaled that 2021 may be another year of records. The volume exported (in natura) between January and July totaled 902 thousand tons, according to data from Secex, slightly less (4.94% or 44.55 thousand tons) than the record amount shipped in 2020.
In July, the price paid in dollar for the Brazilian beef exported set a record, averaging 5,427.7 USD per ton, 20.35% higher than that in early 2021 and 32.99% above that in July/20.
In general, the price paid for the Brazilian beef has been on the rise since September 2020, despite the strong US dollar – which tends to make the national product more competitive abroad. Until then, the highest price paid for the Brazilian beef, of 5,382.24 USD/ton, had been registered in June 2014. However, in that time, the US dollar was around 2.20 BRL, much lower than the current level, limiting the revenue in Real.
On the other hand, in July, the American currency averaged 5.16 BRL, which, added to the record price paid for the beef exported, resulted in an also record revenue in Real, of 4.65 billion BRL (Secex). This amount is a staggering 27.6% higher than that from June/21 and 27.7% up from that in July 2020. In dollar, the revenue received last month surpassed 900 million USD for the first time, hitting 902.6 million USD, 24.15% up in the monthly comparison and 30.7% up in the annual comparison.
These positive figures in the international market are linked to both the high competitiveness of the Brazilian product abroad and China’s dependence on the Brazilian meat.
SWINE – The prices for both live pig in the Brazilian independent market and pork meat in the wholesale market of the Greater São Paulo followed opposite trends in the first fortnight of August.
In the market of live pig, prices increased, influenced by higher demand from exporting slaughterers – pork meat (in natura) exports have been high this month. Besides, the current high production costs (majorly those related to feed) led farmers to increase the asking prices for the animals ready for slaughter in the first half of the month.
On the other hand, the prices for pork meat (carcasses and cuts) dropped in the wholesale market, pressed down by the weak demand in Brazil, majorly due to the low purchase power of the population. Some wholesalers even lowered asking prices, aiming to keep liquidity stable and prevent inventories from increasing.
EXPORTS – The daily average of pork meat exports (in natura) in the first week of August was at 4.8 thousand tons, according to Secex, 14% higher than that in July/21 and 15.2% up from that in August/20.
However, in July, international sales decreased slightly, after setting a record in June. Still, despite the monthly decrease, the volume shipped continued among the highest in the series of Secex. According to data from Secex, in July, Brazil exported 92.8 thousand tons of pork meat, 5% less than that in June, but 2.9% more than that in July 2020.
POULTRY – In order to take advantage of the current high liquidity in the Brazilian market of chicken meat, agents from the poultry sector increased the asking prices for both live chicken and chicken meat in the first fortnight of August. These valuations aim to keep up with the high production costs and ensure positive margins to poultry farmers and slaughterers. With the recent price rises, Cepea surveys show that, in the first half of the month, the price for whole chicken set a nominal record in the series of Cepea, which began in 2004.
Besides the beginning of the month, when workers’ wages are paid, the return of classes and the optimism related to the relaxation of the restrictive measures to fight the pandemic increased the domestic demand for chicken meat, boosting prices. It is important to highlight that prices have been at nominal records in all the regions surveyed by Cepea.
However, the upward trend of whole chicken prices – which has been observed since April 2021, increasing in the recent weeks – reduces the competitiveness of this product against its major competitors: beef and pork meat. And this context is one of the key-factors for chicken’s high liquidity in Brazil. Agents reported that, by the end of the first fortnight, consumers from some regions were already unwilling to pay higher prices for chicken meat, and sales were below the expected.
In the market of chicken cuts and giblets, the prices for the most consumed products in Brazil, such as chicken breast and breast fillet, have been at record levels too. On the other hand, for the products mostly demanded by the international market, such as chicken wings and heart, prices did not rise as much.